Ukungalingani kwezidingo kanye nezinkinga ze-supply chain kusuka kulo bhubhane ngonyaka owedlule kusabeke ubunzima ebhizinisini lokuxhumanisa. Njengoba kusondela u-2024, lokhu kuguquguquka sekungcono, kodwa ukungaqiniseki okwengeziwe kanye nentuthuko yezobuchwepheshe ekhulayo ibumba kabusha imvelo. Okuzofika ezinyangeni ezimbalwa ezizayo kume kanje.
Umkhakha wokuxhumana unamathuba amaningi nobunzima njengoba siqala unyaka omusha. I-supply chain ingaphansi kwengcindezi evela ezimpini zomhlaba wonke mayelana nokutholakala kwezinto ezibonakalayo kanye neziteshi zokuthumela ezitholakalayo. Ukukhiqiza kunomthelela nokho ukushoda kwabasebenzi, ikakhulukazi eNyakatho Melika naseYurophu.
Kodwa kunesidingo esikhulu ezimakethe eziningi. Amathuba amasha ayakhiwa ngokusatshalaliswa kwengqalasizinda yamandla esimeme kanye ne-5G. Izinsiza ezintsha ezihlobene nokukhiqizwa kwama-chip zizosebenza maduze. Ukuqamba okusha embonini ye-interconnect kuqhutshwa ukuthuthukiswa okuqhubekayo kobuchwepheshe obusha, futhi ngenxa yalokho, izixazululo ezintsha zokuxhuma zivula izindlela ezintsha zokuphumelela komklamo we-elekthronikhi.
Izixhumi Ezinhlanu Ezinomthelela Ezithrendayo ngo-2024
Ukucatshangelwa okuyinhloko kwedizayini yesixhumi kanye nokucaciswa kwazo zonke izimboni. Abaklami bezingxenye baye baba nesandla ekwenzeni idizayini yomkhiqizo ifinyelele ukuthuthukiswa okuphawulekayo kokusebenza kanye nokwehliswa kosayizi ekuxhumekeni kwesivinini esikhulu. Sonke isigaba somkhiqizo siyashintsha ngenxa yokwanda kokusetshenziswa kwamagajethi aphathekayo, axhumene, nawo ashintsha kancane kancane indlela yethu yokuphila. Lo mkhuba wokuncipha awukhawulelwe kuma-electronics amancane; izinto ezinkulu njengezimoto, imikhumbi-mkhathi, nezindiza nazo ziyazuza kukho. Hhayi nje kuphela ukuthi izingxenye ezincane, ezilula zinciphisa imithwalo, kodwa futhi zivula ithuba lokuya kude futhi ngokushesha.
Ukwenza ngokwezifiso
Nakuba izinkulungwane zezingxenye ze-COTS ezimisiwe, neziguquguquka ngendlela emangalisayo ngenxa yesikhathi eside sokuthuthukiswa kanye nezindleko eziphakeme ezihlobene nezingxenye ezenziwe ngokwezifiso, ubuchwepheshe obusha obufana ne-digital modelling, ukuphrinta kwe-3D, kanye ne-prototyping esheshayo kwenze kwaba nokwenzeka ngabaklami ukukhiqiza okuklanywe ngokungenasici, izingxenye zohlobo olulodwa ngokushesha futhi ngokuthengekayo.
Ngokushintshanisa idizayini evamile ye-IC ngamasu amasha ahlanganisa ama-chips, ugesi, nezingxenye zemishini zibe idivayisi epakishwe eyodwa, ukupakishwa okuthuthukisiwe kuvumela abaklami ukuthi basunduze imingcele yoMthetho kaMoore. Izinzuzo zokusebenza ezibalulekile zitholwa ngama-3D ICs, amamojula e-multi-chip, ama-system-in-packages (ama-SIP), neminye imiklamo yokupakisha emisha.
Izinto Ezintsha
Isayensi yezinto ezibonakalayo ihlanganisa ukubhekana nezinkinga zemboni yonke kanye nezidingo eziqondene nemakethe, njengesidingo sempahla ephephe kakhudlwana endaweni ezungezile nempilo yabantu, kanye nezimfuneko zokuvumelana kwezinto eziphilayo nokuvala inzalo, ukuqina, nokunciphisa isisindo.
Ukuhlakanipha okungekhona okwangempela
Ukwethulwa kwamamodeli e-AI akhiqizayo ngo-2023 kwadala isiphithiphithi emkhakheni wobuchwepheshe be-AI. Ngo-2024, ubuchwepheshe buzosetshenziswa ekwakhiweni kwengxenye ukuhlola amasistimu nemiklamo, kuphenywe amafomethi amanoveli, nokukhulisa ukusebenza nokusebenza kahle. Umkhakha wokuxhuma uzoba ngaphansi kwengcindezi eyengeziwe yokuthuthukisa izixazululo ezintsha, ezihlala isikhathi eside ngenxa yesidingo esikhulu sokusebenza ngesivinini esidingekayo ukuze kusekelwe lezi zinsizakalo.
Imizwa exubile mayelana nesibikezelo sika-2024
Ukwenza izibikezelo akulula neze, ikakhulukazi uma kunokungaqiniseki okuningi kwezezimali nezwe. Kulo mongo, ukubikezela izimo zebhizinisi zesikhathi esizayo cishe akunakwenzeka. Ngemuva kwalolu bhubhane, ukushoda kwezisebenzi kuyaqhubeka, ukukhula kwe-GDP kuyehla kuwo wonke umnotho womhlaba, futhi izimakethe zomnotho azikazinzi.Ngisho noma izinkinga ze-supply chain emhlabeni wonke sezithuthuke kakhulu ngenxa yokwanda komthamo wemikhumbi kanye namaloli, kusenezinselelo ezithile ezilethwa izinkinga eziyinselele ezihlanganisa ukushoda kwezisebenzi kanye nezingxabano zamazwe ngamazwe.
Noma kunjalo, kubukeka sengathi umnotho womhlaba usebenze kahle kakhulu kunezinye izibikezelo ngo-2023, okuvula indlela yokuqina kuka-2024. Ngo-2024,Bishop & Associatesilindele ukuthi Isixhumi sizokhula kahle. Imboni yokuxhuma ngokuvamile ihlangabezane nokukhula ebangeni ledijithi eyodwa emaphakathi nephansi, kanti isidingo sivame ukukhula kulandela unyaka wokufinyela.
Bika Ucwaningo
Amabhizinisi ase-Asia aveza ikusasa elimnyama. Nakuba kube nokukhuphuka komsebenzi ngasekupheleni konyaka, okungabonisa intuthuko ngo-2024, ukuthengiswa kokuxhumana emhlabeni wonke kwakucishe kufane ngo-2023. Ngo-November 2023 kube nokwenyuka ngo-8.5% ekubhukheni, imboni esalele emuva ngamaviki angu-13.4, kanye nenani isilinganiso se-oda-kuya-mpahla esingu-1.00 ngoNovemba ngokuqhathaniswa no-0.98 wonyaka. Ezokuthutha ziyingxenye yemakethe ekhula kakhulu, ngamaphesenti angu-17.2 unyaka nonyaka; ezezimoto zilandela ngamaphesenti ayi-14.6, kanti izimboni ziku-8.5%. I-China ibe nokukhula okusheshayo konyaka nonyaka kuma-oda phakathi kwezindawo eziyisithupha. Noma kunjalo, imiphumela yonyaka kuze kube manje isemibi kuzo zonke izifunda.
Ukuhlaziywa okuphelele kokusebenza kwemboni yokuxhumana phakathi nesikhathi sokululama kobhubhane kunikezwaUcwaningo lwemboni yokuxhumana kukaBishop 2023–2028,okufaka umbiko ogcwele ka-2022, ukuhlolwa kokuqala kuka-2023, kanye nokuqagela okuningiliziwe kuka-2024 kuya ku-2028. Ukuqonda okuphelele komkhakha wezogesi kungatholwa ngokuhlola ukuthengiswa kwezixhumi ngemakethe, indawo, kanye nesigaba somkhiqizo.
Ukuqaphela kubonisa lokho
1. Ngesilinganiso sokukhula esibikezelwe samaphesenti angu-2.5, iYurophu kulindeleke ukuthi ikhuphuke ifinyelele endaweni yokuqala ngo-2023 kodwa njengephesenti lokukhula lesine elikhulu ngo-2022 ezindaweni eziyisithupha.
2. Ukuthengiswa kwezixhumi zikagesi kuyehluka ngesegimenti yemakethe. Umkhakha we-telecom/datacom kulindeleke ukuthi ukhule ngesivinini esisheshayo ngo-2022—9.4%—ngenxa yokukhula kokusetshenziswa kwe-inthanethi nemizamo eqhubekayo yokusebenzisa i-5G. Umkhakha we-telecom/datacom uzokhula ngesivinini esisheshayo esingu-0.8% ngo-2023, nokho, ngeke ukhule ngendlela owawukhule ngayo ngo-2022.
3. Imboni ye-aerospace yezempi kulindeleke ukuthi inyuke ngo-0.6% ngo-2023, ilandele eduze umkhakha wedatha ye-telecom. Kusukela ngo-2019, imboni yezempi neye-aerospace isalokhu ibusa ezimakethe ezibalulekile okubandakanya imboni yezimoto neyezimboni. Nokho, ngokudabukisayo, iziyaluyalu zomhlaba ezikhona manje ziye zabangela ukunaka kwezempi kanye nezindleko zezindiza.
4. Ngo-2013, izimakethe zase-Asia—eJapane, e-China, nase-Asia-Pacific—zibalelwa ku-51.7% wokuthengiswa kokuxhumana emhlabeni wonke, kanti iNyakatho Melika kanye ne-Europe ibalelwa ku-42.7% wokuthengiswa kukonke. Ukuthengiswa kokuxhumana emhlabeni jikelele onyakeni wezimali ka-2023 kulindeleke ukuthi kubalwe yiNyakatho Melika kanye ne-Europe ngama-45%, kukhuphuke ngamaphesenti angama-2.3 ukusuka ngo-2013, kanye nemakethe yase-Asia kube ngama-50.1%, kwehle ngamaphesenti ayi-1.6 ukusuka ku-2013. imakethe yokuxhuma e-Asia izomela amaphuzu angu-1.6 wemakethe yomhlaba wonke.
Isixhumi se-Outlook kuya ku-2024
Kunamathuba amaningi azayo kulo nyaka omusha, futhi indawo yekusasa ayikaziwa. Kodwa into eyodwa eqinisekile: ama-electronics azohlala eyisici esikhulu ekuthuthukisweni kwesintu. Akunakwenzeka ukweqisa ukubaluleka kokuxhumana njengamandla amasha.
Ukuxhumana kuzoba ingxenye ebalulekile yenkathi yedijithali futhi kunikeze ukwesekwa okubalulekile kwezinhlelo eziningi zokusebenza zokudala njengoba ubuchwepheshe buthuthuka. Ukuxhumana kuzobaluleka ekuthuthukisweni kobuhlakani bokwenziwa, i-inthanethi Yezinto, kanye nokwanda kwamagajethi ahlakaniphile. Sinesizathu esihle sokucabanga ukuthi ubuchwepheshe obuxhunyiwe nemishini kagesi kuzoqhubeka nokubhala isahluko esisha esihle ndawonye ngonyaka ozayo.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Feb-19-2024